16 August 2023

Guild Wars 2 WvW - True Camp Value - Part 2

It's been a long time, but I finally found the motivation and time to work down my list. Last time we looked at the true camp value based on the actual points camps produce in the Guild Wars 2's World versus World game mode. You can read up and refresh your knowledge over here. One of the follow-up topics I wanted to go over is the balance aspect, specifically whether or not one team's camps provide a significant advantage over the others.

Answering this requires three equally strong teams. Environmental advantages are hard to quantify. Thus, to reduce complexity, we will assume that landscape plays no role. Under these circumstances, the teams will own structures by distance primarily. The resulting structure ownership will look like this:

 Ill. 1: Guild Wars 2 World vs World Theoretical Objective Ownership in an equal match by GreenyNeko (Some graphical elements by ArenaNet)

Notice that the map's owner typically conquers the bordering keeps due to increased priority. Now, we can calculate each camp's true value using our dataset. For this, we consider objects connecting to camps and their color. Applying the dataset yields the following result:

 Ill. 2: Guild Wars 2 World vs World Dolyak Points Per 5 Minutes by GreenyNeko

We analyze the balance by summing each team's points from our setup. Shared objects yield a percentage of their points to each relevant team. We will use the unbuffed walking speed values because the speed multipliers become irrelevant and for consistency. The result is:

 Team Total Points Desert Green Blue Eternal Green 35.332 2.975 10.79 4.075 17.383 Blue 38.355 2.94 3.575 10.79 21.05 Red 41.567 13.507 4.075 3.575 20.41

We already see an advantage in the matchmaking system. As a reminder, we explained that matchmaking ranks servers from highest to lowest: green, blue, and red. The table reflects this, empowering the lower-ranked teams. The big question is whether or not this is confirmation bias, measurement errors, or fact.

To check this via the null hypothesis. We assume equal team points, and the difference is error based. Thus, the scores' average is close to the truth. Finding a significant deviation from the average disproves the null hypothesis confirming our previous supposition. For significance, we will use an alpha value of 0.05. The mean of the scores is (35.332+38.355+41.567)/3 = 38.418. Thus, we get the following deviations:
• 1-35.332/38.418 = 0.0803 (8.03%)
• 1-38.355/38.418 = 0.0016 (0.16%)
• 1-41.567/38.418 = 0.0820 (8.20%)
Apparently, the difference is significant enough to consider it more than an error. Therefore, we conclude that the teams gain a significant advantage from Dolyaks d inversely proportional to their matching rank r. (d ∝ 1/r)

Lastly, I apologize for having taken so long. I needed more time and motivation to write between theses and seminar papers. Since I swapped to Lost Ark, I probably won't post about Guild Wars 2 for now. I hope you will continue to read my blog to learn about the kinds of stuff I present. :3
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