29 January 2018

Guild Wars 2: Magic-Warped Bundle - Worth

I did a post on the Magic-Warped Packets. It was bound to happen that I'm going to make a post about the Magic-Warped Bundles. And yes, I know by now that people say the new volatile magic is better but hey! I have my infinite unbound magic tools and I like my farming route through Bitterfrost!

What's the Difference?

So what makes these Magic-Warped Bundles different from the Packets? Well, they are more expensive. Logically more expensive things must come out? That's actually true. The bundles include rare items like lodestones, tier six materials, and unique upgrades. In total 30 different items can be collected via these bundles.

These items include:
  • 10 ancient bones
  • 10 armored scales
  • 10 elaborate totems
  • 10 karka shells
  • 10 piles of crystalline dust
  • 10 powerful venom sacs
  • 10 pristine toxic spore samples
  • 10 vials of powerful blood
  • 10 vicious claws
  • 10 vicious fangs
  • 2 charged lodestones
  • 2 crystal lodestones
  • 2 destroyer lodestones
  • 2 evergreen lodestones
  • 2 glacial lodestones
  • 2 molten lodestones
  • 2 Mordrem lodestones
  • 2 onyx lodestones
  • 2 mystic clover
  • 1 amalgamated gemstone
  • 1 black diamond
  • 1 ebony orb
  • 1 flax blossom
  • 1 freshwater pearl
  • 1 giant eye
  • 1 maguuma burl
  • 1 maguuma lily
  • 1 moonstone orb
  • 5 globs of ectoplasm
To recap more expensive and different loot. Actually checking the prices the value is more distributed than with the Magic-Warped Packets.

Drop Research

I did some drop research of my own and got 640 samples. Back when I checked it was more than on wiki now it's the opposite around. The wiki now has 7764 samples. Out of curiosity, I'm still going to compare my results with the wiki results but I'll use the wiki results for the calculation later on.

Of course, the calculation is the same as usual. We open X samples or bundles and see how often the item type comes out. Then we're dividing the number of occurrences through the number of samples. Keep in mind the actual amount that comes out does not matter we want the item type. That means 10 ancient bones are not handled as 10 but as one. This is also the reason why we have to divide the amount that has dropped in the wiki research through the amount we get. In our ancient bones example, the wiki notes a drop amount of 3620 from 7764 bundles. However, 10 ancient bones dropped only 3620 / 10 = 362 times from those 7764 bundles. So in the end, we calculate
totalAmount / droppedStackSize / bundles = dropRate or in our example 3620 / 10 / 7764 = 0.0466. That's 4.66%. Doing this for every single item we get the following table.

Item My drop rate Wiki drop rate
10 ancient bones
2.97%
4.66%
10 armored scales 4.69% 4.31%
10 elaborate totems 6.41% 4.97%
10 karka shells 6.09% 4.73%
10 piles of crystalline dust 5.16% 4.70%
10 powerful venom sacs 3.44% 4.52%
10 pristine toxic spore samples 4.69% 4.50%
10 vials of powerful blood 4.22% 4.81%
10 vicious claws 3.13% 4.78%
10 vicious fangs 4.53% 4.39%
1 black diamond 1.72% 1.30%
1 flax blossom 0.94% 1.52%
1 giant eye 2.81% 1.39%
1 maguuma lily 1.56% 1.34%
5 globs of ectoplasm 4.53% 4.24%
Item My drop rate Wiki drop rate
2 charged lodestones
2.66%
2.61%
2 crystal lodestones 4.53% 3.05%
2 destroyer lodestones 2.66% 2.77%
2 evergreen lodestones 2.81% 3.08%
2 glacial lodestones 7.34% 6.16%
2 molten lodestones 3.13% 2.77%
2 mordrem lodestones 3.13% 3.14%
2 onyx lodestones 2.97% 3.13%
2 mystic clover 1.72% 1.87%
1 amalgamated gemstone 2.66% 3.98%
1 ebony orb 1.09% 1.64%
1 freshwater pearl 1.25% 1.52%
1 maguuma burl 1.25% 1.58%
moonstone orb 1.09% 1.65%

Something you notice when comparing the numbers is that the data from the wiki is more evenly distributed and fluctuates less between the drops.

Calculating the Value

Determining the worth we need to look at each item type that can drop from the bundle. Here we're looking at the whole stack we get. So if we get ten tier six materials we got ten times the price of one. Additionally selling items on the trading post costs a fee of 5% for placing the item into the trading post and 10% for the transaction. So what we're calculating is the value the item has in the market - I'm going to use the selling price instead of the buy price since it's higher and materials always sell good - minus the trading post fee of 15% and then multiply this with the amount we get. In the example of ancient bones, it has a selling price of  2571 copper the fee is 377.4 copper. So we get 2571 - 377 = 2193.6. Multiplying it with the amount we get 2194 * 10 = 21936 copper or 2 gold 19 silver and 36 copper. You may notice that I'm rounding the numbers. This is what the trading post does as well.

Item Single value TP fee After fee Total value
10 ancient bones 2571 386 2185 21850
10 armored scales 2605 391 2214 22140
10 elaborate totems 2845 427 2418 24180
10 karka shells 1009 151 858 8580
10 piles of crystalline dust 1143 171 974 9740
10 powerful venom sacs 2510 377 2133 21330
10 pristine toxic spore samples 380 57 323 3230
10 vials of powerful blood 3300 495 2805 28050
10 vicious claws 2589 388 2201 22010
10 vicious fangs 2600 390 2210 22100
1 black diamond 7399 1110 6289 6289
1 flax blossom 2129 319 1810 1810
1 giant eye 2101 315 1786 1786
1 maguuma lily 84991 12749 72242 72242
5 globs of ectoplasm 2006 301 1705 8525
Item Single value TP fee After fee Total value
2 charged lodestones 11886 1783 10103 20206
2 crystal lodestones 5692 854 4838 9676
2 destroyer lodestones 5767 865 4902 9804
2 evergreen lodestones 10839 1626 9213 18426
2 glacial lodestones 3807 571 3236 6472
2 molten lodestones 5099 765 4334 8668
2 mordrem lodestones 148 22 126 252
2 onyx lodestones 6395 959 5436 10872
2 mystic clover 640 - 640 1280
1 amalgamated gemstone 18311 2747 15564 15564
1 ebony orb 2556 383 2173 2173
1 freshwater pearl
65407
9811
55596
55596
1 maguuma burl
2210
332
1878
1878
1 moonstone orb
1972
296
1676
1676


Notice that I calculate the mystic clover by their vendor value. To determine the value of mystic clover that's quite a bit harder so we're going with this. This also assumes that you don't want or don't need mystic clovers! Anyways with the whole table filled up and all the values in copper known we can start to calculate the actual worth of our bundle.

Calculating the Worth

To do this we simply say that each valued drop has a certain relevance. The relevance is the weight of how much it plays a role in our worth. This weight is the chance for the respective item stack to drop. Thus we're going, to sum up, all our total values multiplied by their specific drop chances from the first table. The end result will be the worth of our magic-warped bundles.

21850 * 4.66% + 22140 * 4.31% + 24180 * 4.97% + 8580 * 4.73% + 9740 * 4.70% + 21330 * 4.52% + 3230 * 4.5% + 28050 * 4.81% + 22010 * 4.78% + 22100 * 4.39% + 6289 * 1.30% + 1810 * 1.52% + 1786 * 1.39% + 72242 * 1.34% + 8525 * 4.24% + 1280 * 1.87% + 20206 * 2.61% + 9676 * 3.05% + 9804 * 2.77% + 18426 * 3.08% + 6472 * 6.16% + 8668 * 2.77% + 252 * 3.14% + 10872 * 3.13% + 15564 * 3.98% + 2173 * 1.64% + 55596 * 1.52% + 1878 * 1.58% + 1676 * 1.65% = 14212.32

The percentages need to match the prices of the same item or else it may result in errors or deviations from the result we want.

So now we know that we can expect to get 1 gold 42 silver and 12 copper when selling the materials we get from the bundle. The buying price is either 1 gold and 500 unbound magic or 40 silver and 1250 unbound magic. If we're only looking at our gold we would make 14212 - 10000 = 4212 copper buying the expensive one and 14212 - 4000 = 10212 copper buying the cheaper one. So we have a plus of either 42 silver and 12 copper or 1 gold 2 silver and 12 copper by paying another 750 unbound magic.

What Now, Captain?

Next, we can compare bundles and packets! If anyone cares.. but now in this post. These posts get big enough and very time-consuming. Of course, I could leave all those tables away and focus on the calculation... hmm I don't know.
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