20 January 2018

Guild Wars 2: Magic-Warped Packet - Worth It?

Back in the old days (Living World Season 3) many people were skeptical. I looked up what dropped from them and I was hooked. They drop an interesting bunch of materials, they can't be that bad, can they?

Magic-Warped Packet

These bag items include a handful of different materials and can be bought for different prices at the vendors in the Living World Season 3 areas. (Bloodstone Fen, Ember Bay, Bitterfrost Frontier, Lake Doric, Draconis Mons, and Siren's Landing) The prices for this one are always 50 silver and 250 unbound magic. So let's see what we get from it.

We have a chance to get one of these:
  • 10 copper ore
  • 10 iron ore
  • 10 silver ore
  • 10 gold ore
  • 10 platinum ore
  • 10 mithril ore
  • 5 orichalcum ore
  • 10 green wood log
  • 10 soft wood log
  • 10 seasoned wood log
  • 10 hard wood log
  • 10 elder wood log
  • 5 ancient wood log
  • 10 jute scrap
  • 10 wool scrap
  • 10 cotton scrap
  • 10 linen scrap
  • 10 silk scrap
  • 5 gossamer scrap
  • 10 rawhide leather section
  • 10 thin leather section
  • 10 coarse leather section
  • 10 rugged leather section
  • 10 thick leather section
  • 5 hardened leather
  • 1 deldrimor steel ingot
  • 1 bolt of damask
  • 1 spiritwood plank
  • 1 elonian leather square
  • 1 mystic clover
Now to determine whether or not these packets are worth it, we need to know how much the content is worth. This should be no problem we can check it out in the trading post or via the API. Since we can simply look at the prices let's wait with actual numbers until we start our calculation, since the prices may change while we're going throughout our theorycrafting.

Drop Research

We can't expect the packet to drop all of those items we've listed at the same time. Especially since that's not the case. We only get one of the items listed above. The question here is what is the chance to get each of them. We could assume the chance to be equal for every. Though making some research is better. So how does the research work? It's quite simple to believe me. It's done straight forward:
  • buy packets
  • open them
  • look what comes out
  • take notes
So if we say we open 50 packets and from these, we get 30 times the iron ore, we say the chance to get the iron or is 30 / 50 = 0.6, 60%. We continue this for each item to get our drop rates.
Back when the magic-warped packets and bundles first came out I started to make this research once I've bought everything I wanted for the unbound magic. By now the Guild Wars 2 wiki has some drop research too.

So let's compare the drop research from me to the one from the Guild Wars 2 wiki. For that, we need to convert the Guild Wars 2 wiki numbers into a drop chance. This is done by checking the drop research and dividing the drops through the total containers. Copper ore, for example, they got 20 copper from 195 containers during the writing of this post. Though you get 10 coppers instead of 1 so they had two 10 copper ore drops, which means it has a drop chance of 2 / 195 = 0.0103 or 1.03%.

On a side note. My research opened 375, theirs is 195. Assuming neither had any errors or false entries my research should be more accurate since I had more trials or more data.

Drop GreenyNeko GW2 Wiki
10 copper ore 0.80% 1.03%
10 iron ore 6.67% 7.69%
10 silver ore 1.60% 2.05%
10 gold ore 1.60% 1.54%
10 platinum ore 4.27% 2.56%
10 mithril ore 4.80% 3.08%
5 orichalcum ore 1.87% 2.56%
10 green wood log 2.67% 2.05%
10 soft wood log 2.93% 5.64%
10 seasoned wood log 6.93% 3.08%
10 hard wood log 5.33% 5.13%
10 elder wood log 3.73% 3.59%
5 ancient wood log 4.00% 7.69%
10 jute scrap 1.87% 3.08%
10 wool scrap 3.20% 2.56%
Drop GreenyNeko GW2 Wiki
10 cotton scrap 6.93% 6.67%
10 linen scrap 3.73% 4.62%
10 silk scrap 1.33% 1.03%
5 gossamer scrap 2.67% 1.03%
10 rawhide leather section 0.53% 3.08%
10 thin leather section 3.47% 5.13%
10 coarse leather section 5.60% 3.59%
10 rugged leather section 2.93% 3.59%
10 thick leather section 2.93% 3.08%
5 hardened leather 8.27% 4.62%
1 deldrimor steel ingot 2.93% 5.13%
1 bolt of damask 2.40% 1.54%
1 spiritwood plank 1.33% 4.10%
1 elonian leather square 2.67% 4.62%
1 mystic clover 0.00% 0.00%

Since the wiki only has 195 opened packets their research fluctuates much more than mine but you can see that here and there both numbers behave similarly. Of course, the drop chance is the same for every player so similarities are bound to happen.

So let's go with the research that has more data since it is more likely to be accurate and a small error or a small amount of false data doesn't affect a big data pool that much. Though you know.. never trust a statistic you didn't fake yourself so if you do not trust my data collection for yourself. Whether or not it's worth doing that.. we will find out now.

Determining the Value

We can use our drop research to determine the value of the packets. If you have a coin flip and you get $1 from heads and lose $1 from tails assuming both have a 50% chance to drop you have a 50% chance to get $1 and a 50% chance to lose one. So you could say with each turn you have a plus of 0.5 * $1 = $0.5 and a minus of 0.5 * $1 = $0.5. Summing it up you get +$0.5 and -$0.5 which equals zero. So on average, there is no win nor loss. This is the expected value. You could also say the chance of a case happening is the weight of the amount you get. A number with a higher chance or a higher rate of occurrence has more relevance to a higher weight.

With this defined we can now use the drop chances from our drop research as weights and multiply them with the value of the items themselves. Summing it all up we get the worth of a package. Then we can subtract the buy price and we get the plus. So let's do this. For the prices, I'm going through the current trading post prices using the instant sell. That means if you make sell orders it's you're getting more than written here.

Item Drop Rate Total Value in copper Expected Value in copper
10 copper ore 0.80% 10 * 80 = 800 0.008 * 800 = 6.4
10 iron ore 6.67% 10 * 171 = 1710 0.0667 * 1710 = 114
10 silver ore 1.60% 10 * 6 = 60 0.016 * 60 = 0.96
10 gold ore 1.60% 10 * 31 = 310 0.016 * 310 = 4.96
10 platinum ore 4.27% 10 * 152 = 1520 0.0427 * 1520 = 64.90
10 mithril ore 4.80% 10 * 38 = 380 0.0480 * 380 = 18.24
5 orichalcum ore 1.87% 5 * 89 = 445 0.0187 * 445 = 8.32
10 green wood log 2.67% 10 * 14 = 140 0.0267 * 140 = 3.74
10 soft wood log 2.93% 10 * 56 = 560 0.0293 * 560 = 16.41
10 seasoned wood log 6.93% 10 * 147 = 1470 0.0693 * 1470 = 101.87
10 hard wood log 5.33% 10 * 95 = 950 0.0533 * 950 = 50.63
10 elder wood log 3.73% 10 * 142 = 1420 0.0373 * 1420 = 52.97 
5 ancient wood log 4.00% 5 * 211 = 1055 0.04 * 1055 = 42.2
10 jute scrap 1.87% 10 * 81 = 810 0.0187 * 810 = 15.15
10 wool scrap 3.20% 10 * 278 = 2780 0.032 * 2780 = 88.96
10 cotton scrap 6.93% 10 * 91 = 910 0.0693 * 910 = 63.06
10 linen scrap 3.73% 10 * 278 = 2780 0.0373 * 2780 = 103.69
10 silk scrap 1.33% 10 * 33 = 330 0.0133 * 330 = 4.39
5 gossamer scrap 2.67% 5 * 12 = 60 0.0267 * 60 = 1.60
10 rawhide leather section 0.53% 10 * 75 = 750 0.0053 * 750 = 3.97
10 thin leather section 3.47% 10 * 272 = 2720 0.0347 * 2720 = 94.38
10 coarse leather section 5.60% 10 * 169 = 1690 0.056 * 1690 = 94.64
10 rugged leather section 2.93% 10 * 488 = 4880 0.0293 * 4880 = 142.98
10 thick leather section 2.93% 10 * 65 = 650 0.0293 * 650 = 19.04
5 hardened leather 8.27% 5 * 1245 = 6225 0.0827 * 6225 = 514.81
1 deldrimor steel ingot 2.93% 48069 0.0293 * 48069 = 1408.42
1 bolt of damask 2.40% 42103 0.024 * 42103 = 1010.47
1 spiritwood plank 1.33%36573 0.0133 * 36573 = 486.42
1 elonian leather square 2.67% 76360 0.0267 * 76360 = 2038.81
1 mystic clover 0.00% 640* 0.0000 * 640 = 0

* this is the vendor sell price, economically the value of mystic clover depends on how important it is for you.


Now we have the expected value of each drop. Next, we need to sum it up to get the expected value of the packet.

6.4 + 114 + 0.96 + 4.96 + 64.90 + 18.24 + 8.32 + 3.74 + 16.41 + 101.87 + 50.63 + 52.97 + 42.2 + 15.15 + 88.96 + 63.06 + 103.69 + 4.39 + 1.6 + 3.97 + 94.38 + 94.64 + 142.98 + 19.04 + 514.81 + 1408.42 + 1010.47 + 486.42 + 2038.81 + 0 = 6576.39

So after all this calculation, we can say according to our research so far we can expect 65 silver and 76 copper for each magic-warped packet. Since they cost 50 silver we are left with a plus of 15 silver and 76 copper. This answers our question of whether or not they're worth it. Let's even go one step further.

BUT! Trading Post

Huge "but" and something I forgot myself. A fellow Reddit user was so kind as to remind me. Thanks to rude_asura. Selling items on the trading post costs a fee of 10% of the selling price. Listing items, or more like placing items into the trading post costs a fee of 5% of the selling price. So in total, we have to pay a fee of 15% of what we would get from selling the item. We could subtract that 15 %. However, we can just say we are left with 85% of the gold. This makes it easier to calculate it. So now we have to multiply every single number with 0.85 or instead we multiply our result the 6576.39 with 85%.

Selling all our items gives us 6576.39 * 0.85 = 5589.93 copper.
That means we expect to get 55 silver and 90 copper from every packet. Since they cost 50 silver we are left with a plus of 5 silver and 90 copper. So they're still worth it at the current market prices. Even if not much.

Value of Unbound Magic

If we say we make no plus on this item the rest of the money we get is the unbound magic part of the items price. Then we're saying 250 unbound magic equals those 25 silver and 76 copper. Doing this we can say one unbound magic has a value of 2576 / 250 = 10.304 copper. Though there might be better deals for unbound magic, so we should look at those first before claiming the unbound magic value to be 10.304 copper.

Liked the post? Noticed an error? Wanna discuss the content or leave a comment*? You can join or check into the discord to do so! (*Note: Comments are disabled to avoid saving user data on this website.)
>> Join Discord

About Me

My photo
I'm a junior game developer and software developer and I created this blog to share my ideas, thoughts and whatever I'm working on or doing.