*proc*chance or chance of items to drop with a higher

*item level*before and asked friends what the

*proc*chance is. Some mentioned that someone tested it on the

*PTR (public test realm)*and shared their results on the

#### Checking Drop Rates

Loot tables, drop rates, etc. are really tedious to check. The reason these things are so tedious is if you have no vendor or alternative to get the

*drops*you need to*farm*. This means repeating the same content over and over again to check every single instance of the*drop.*

Calculating the chance of something to happen works via stochastic. We divide the number of instances or cases through the number of all possibilities. So if we say our item dropped three times and we ran the content 25 times we have a chance of 3 / 25 = 0.12, 12% to get that item.

However, what we want is the rate of

*procs*. For this, we're going to assume a few rules that may or may not be given.- The proc chance will always be the same
- Items can proc several times
- There's a limit to the
*procs*

The limit is determined by the base

*item level*. Each*proc*increases the*item level*by five. The maximum*item level*is 170. So that means a*prime level*0 item, which has an*item level*of 65 can*proc (170 - 65) / 5 = 21*times.
To get the

*proc*chance we're gonna ignore any multi procs for now and just look at any item that*procs***at least**once. We divide this number through the number of items we've gotten in total. The counter chance is the chance to get an item that has no*proc*, as in an item that has the base item level.
To correct errors and check the values, a double

*proc*must have the chance of the single*proc*chance multiplied by itself. Vice versa, the double*proc*divided by the single*proc*chance must result in the single*proc*chance.#### Gathering Samples

To gather the samples we need to run easy and fast content. It would be even better if we do the same content with the same circumstances to prevent from getting unwanted values in. The fastest

*prime content*is*prime level*0. One of my favorite*instances*to get through fast is the*expedition**infestation*. My runs were around five to six minutes. So I've been running through this*expedition*in the past days and trying to get a small number of samples:- 44 items in total
- 35 without a
*proc* - 5 with only one
*proc* - 4 with double
*proc*

Knowing this we also know the number of items that have at least one

*proc*is*5 + 4 = 9.*We can already calculate the chance of getting an item that has no*proc*. To do this we divide the number of items without*proc*through the total amount of items.
P("no

*proc*") = 35 / 44 = 0.7954, 79.54%
We can easily calculate the other ones as well:

P("only one

*proc*") = 5 / 44 = 0.1136, 11.36%
P("only double

*proc*") = 4 / 44 = 0.0909, 9.09%
Though these are only nice to know.

The actual chance that would be relevant is how often we get a

*proc*. There are three ways to calculate this.
P("at least one

*proc*") = 1 - P("no*proc*") = 1 - 0.7954 = 0.2046, 20.46%
P("at least one

*proc*") = P("only one*proc*") + P("only double*proc*") = 0.1136 + 0.0909 = 0.2045, 20.45%
P("at least one

*proc*") = (5 + 4) / 44 = 9 / 44 = 0.2045, 20.45%#### Running our checks.

Applying our rules:

P("at least one

*proc*") * P("at least one*proc*") = P("at least two*procs*")
Since we had no

*proc*above two we can take P("only double*proc*") which is 0.0909. Filling everything in we get*0.2045 * 0.2045 = 0.0909, 9.09%*. Calculating it gives us 0.2045 * 0.2045 = 0.0418, 4.18%. If we're assuming the rules we've created apply, these numbers will draw nearer.
If we reverse calculate from the double

*proc*to the single*proc*we divide the double*proc*through the single*proc*. Keep in mind:
P("at least two

*procs*") / P("at least one*proc*") = P("at least one*proc*")
The actual P("at least two

*procs*") we have is 0.0909. So if we calculate 0.0909 / 0.2045 = 0.4445 we'll get 44.45%. Again the numbers 0.2045 or 20.45% and 0.4445 or 44.45% will draw closer to each other. So we could assume the drop chance may be between 20.45% and 44.45% at this point.#### The Myth

I heard the drop chance was 25%. If we assume 20.45% and 44.45% draw closer equally we can find the middle by taking the difference and subtracting half of the difference form the higher value.

44.45% - 20.45% = 24%

24% / 2 = 12%

44.45% - 12% = 32.45%

This is just an estimate that might not be accurate at all.

#### On-Going

The sample size we have consists of 44 items which means there are going to be huge fluctuations in percentages for each new item we get. To be certain we need to keep on collecting data until we have enough so that the fluctuations are low enough and the difference in our checks is small enough. Most optimal would be a fluctuation lower than 0.0001 since we've rounded up to 0.01%.

#### Bottom Line

I'm gonna continue my research and make a new post on this next week since I had this topic planned twice accidentally. Whelp :P If you have the information somewhere I'd be glad if it's shared. Well... I'm off to get more samples now evening or night. :P